Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

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Last year Justify became the sixth straight favorite to win the Kentucky Derby and went on to win the Triple Crown. Is there another Triple Crown winner in this group of horses? Time will tell, but first things first; here's my breakdown of every horse in the Kentucky Derby field.

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Note: Horses listed in order of post position.

Two more 2021 Kentucky Derby prep races give us three new names in the top 10 on the points leaderboard. Medina Spirit's win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita vaulted him to No. 4 on the list, with 14 points. The win gives trainer Bob Baffert two in the top 10; Spielberg has 13 points after a fourth-place finish in the Robert B. Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool at the Kentucky Derby. The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track.

Chris Fallica's guide to the field

1. War of Will (20-1 ML)

War of Will is the unfortunate victim of the rail draw. He had some appeal, too, as he broke maiden at Churchill Downs in the slop in November, had a great local workout last week and looked to be on the verge of atoning for a poor showing as a beaten favorite in the Louisiana Derby. But the rail eliminates him from win consideration. Since Ferdinand won the Derby in 1986, only two horses have even cracked the trifecta from that position, one of whom was stretch runner Lookin at Lee in 2017 at 33-1. War of Will has a much different preferred running style as a presser/early speed type, so dropping totally out of it and passing a bunch of horses late isn't his M.O. I expect him to send hard out of the gate and hope for the best trip possible, which likely means he's ticketed for a midpack finish at best.

2. Tax (20-1)

Trainer Danny Gargan's first Derby starter is a cut below the rest, despite considerable improvement and consistency since being claimed for $50K. He wasn't the best horse in the Withers (Not That Brady did all the dirty work and Tax just got up late), and he was soundly beaten by Tacitus in the Wood, despite Tacitus having an eventful trip. And Post 2 is no bargain. Since 1987, runners breaking from Posts 1 and 2 have just three seconds and five third-place finishes, most of them coming from stretch runners who dropped back and passed tired horses late. Like War of Will, Tax prefers to be closer to the front, and if he chooses that route here, he won't be around late.

3. By My Standards (20-1)

He has garnered some buzz as a potential price play. His debut came over an off track at Churchill Downs, and he ran second at a nice number, then really found his form at Fair Grounds, winning his first start against winners in the Louisiana Derby at 23-1. His running style here could put him in the mix for minor awards. His jockey, Gabriel Saez, has some experience in the Derby, as he rode favorite Friesian Fire in 2009 and Eight Belles in 2008. I won't use him on top but will definitely use him for second and third, as we've seen closers like Lookin at Lee, Golden Soul and Revolutionary hit the board from inside posts in the past few years, with two of them at huge numbers.

4. Grey Magician (50-1)

Peter Miller's UAE Derby runner-up is outclassed here and will just be taking up valuable space for position in the vital first 1/8 and 1/4 mile. He is a total throwout. I hope the connection enjoys the parties and the pageantry.

5. Improbable (6-1)

The first of three Bob Baffert runners checks all the boxes for me. I love the fact he will have blinkers off here. It reminds me of Palace Malice in 2013, who added blinkers for the Derby, then took them off for the Belmont and won for fun at a nice number. Baffert added blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, and they come off here, which I interpret as him being a little further back in this race. He's proven on an off track, and his dam side has stamina influence with A.P. Indy to go with the speed breeding on the sire line with City Zip and Carson City. Irad Ortiz is one of the best riders out there with horses coming from off the pace. And have we mentioned Baffert has won this race five times? I also give this guy a bit of a break for having his training and race schedule disrupted some as a result of the issues at Santa Anita. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Post 5 has been a good place to be lately. In the past seven years, PP 5 has produced two winners, three third-place finishes and nothing worse than fifth. Improbable is a must-use in all spots.

6. Vekoma (20-1)

I didn't like the Blue Grass at all as a prep. The field was subpar and Vekoma crawled home. He'll probably find himself closer to the lead as a result of the post draw, but as last year's Belmont showed with Noble Indy, Javier Castellano doesn't always put a horse that should be on the front end in the mix early. For a guy who has had some good mounts in the Derby, half of Castellano's 12 horses have finished 10th or worse, although Audible ran a very good third last year. If you like Vekoma, I won't talk you off him at 20-1, but I don't expect him to be around late and will limit him at best to the third and fourth spots in trifectas and superfectas.

7. Maximum Security (10-1)

He's the only runner in the field with multiple 100 Beyers and has won all four of his lifetime races. But there's seemingly always a 'but' when it comes to runners from the Jason Servis barn, as this one debuted in a $16k maiden claimer and is now a Grade I winner. He had an easy lead in the Florida Derby and had plenty left to hold off the maiden Bodexpress and Code of Honor. We know he will be on the lead. How many others join him will dictate how long he hangs around. He's either a love him or hate him type in this race -- and you have to take a stand somewhere in a field of 20 -- so I will take a stand against. But he's a definite factor up front and will likely be leading with quarter mile to go. From there, it's anybody's guess what happens.

8. Tacitus (10-1)

Hello, trendy midprice runner. I've had more people tell me they like Tacitus -- and then ask my opinion -- than any other runner in the field. Included in that bunch are the two most notable 'mushes' I know. Maybe this is a year they catch a winner. Tacitus has not done anything wrong on the track, as he was impressive winning the Tampa Bay Derby and then winning the Wood despite not having the best of trips in a race he didn't necessarily need to win. Strictly on PPs, he totally figures for the top spots. But a couple of things to note: None of trainer Bill Mott's eight Derby runners have finished better than seventh (Hofburg in 2018), and six of the eight finished 11th or worse. Historically a key prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Wood Memorial has not produced a top-three finisher in the Derby since 2003, when Empire Maker finished second to Funny Cide, both of whom ran in the Wood. In the past three years, the Wood winner has finished ninth (Vino Rosso last year), 10th (Irish War Cry as the second choice in 2017) and 14th (Outwork in 2016). Form looks good, but I can't get the vibe of this guy being this year's Mendelssohn, Gunnevera, Frosted, Normandy Invasion, etc. out of my head. He's that appealing midrange shot or so that gets bet down and doesn't win.

9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1)

The history of UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby is well known -- none of the 10 winners to run in the Derby finished better than sixth. But this runner could run a bit better, as he is U.S.-based and has two solid races over Churchill Downs, including a fast-closing runner-up finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. Trainer Brendan Walsh typically fares very well at Churchill Downs. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. is certainly used to being on Derby long shots, having ridden the longest shot and second-longest shot in the field the past two years. But this is one I'll be using on the lower rungs of the exotics because of his good races at Churchill Downs and the fact he will be at least 30-1. Remember, in the past six years, four horses 30-1 or better have hit the board.

10. Cutting Humor (30-1)

Won a soft prep at Sunland, but even with the local knowledge of Churchill Downs regular Corey Lanerie, it's hard to make a case for him to hit the board.

11. Haikal (30-1)

I think he's best served as a closing sprinter, despite his win in the 1-mile Gotham. I think that race was more about Instagrand's no-show off a long layoff and total pace collapse. A foot abscess has his status in doubt for Saturday, so I will not be using, even in the event he doesn't scratch. (Note: Haikal is scratched.)

13. Code of Honor (15-1)

He could be a bit of a forgotten horse here, as he was beaten over six lengths in the Florida Derby by Maximum Security. But trainer Shug McGaughey and jockey Johnny Velazquez will get a much fairer setup for Code of Honor on Saturday, and he could fall into a great stalking trip like he did in the Fountain of Youth. In his third race off a layoff, this should be his best race from a speed figure standpoint too. We don't know how he will like the off track, nor do we know if 1¼ is outside his distance scope, but if he's at 15-1 or better, I will absolutely use him, and if he doesn't fire, so be it. Note that win in the Fountain of Youth came at nearly 10-1 after a fourth-place finish as a beaten odds-on favorite.

14. Win Win Win (15-1)

Kentucky derby betting sheets

I don't think he can win (his chances improved with the scratch of Omaha Beach), but he warrants usage underneath here. I didn't think the Blue Grass field was all that, but he had a brutal trip at Keeneland when he was second choice to Vekoma and was favored vs. Tacitus in the Tampa Bay Derby. He's a shorter price than Vekoma here, and that 99 Beyer in the sprint at Tampa does catch the eye. I'll use underneath as an 'I don't really like the horse, but I can see a real case for him hitting the board' entrant.

15. Master Fencer (50-1)

The Japanese-bred horse is one of the longest prices in the field, and rightfully so. Lani didn't embarrass himself a couple of years ago, but I can't make a case for Master Fencer here. Note that jockey Julien Leparoux is one of two Derby jockeys to have at least 10 mounts in the race and not have at least one top-three finish. That likely won't change Saturday.

16. Game Winner (5-1)

He's ticketed as the favorite with Omaha Beach out. Some might think he peaked at 2, but he's got excuses at 3 as well, given he's a Santa Anita-based runner and didn't have the best of trips against Omaha Beach at Oaklawn. Still, he was beaten by only a nose and half-length in those two races. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November from a wide post, so I'm not going to fret about PP 15. Plus he's got one of the best off-the-pace jockeys going in Joel Rosario. The three times Rosario has had a Derby mount that was a top-five betting choice, he won with Orb and posted top-five finishes the other two instances. So if he's on someone that has a chance on paper, odds are he's going to have his runner in the race and give it a great go. It would also be some good karma if he wins, as Game Winner's owners, Gary and Mary West, had one of their horses, Restoring Hope, basically serve as a lead blocker/bodyguard for Justify in the Belmont last year. Of all the horses in the field, I'm most confident he will hit the board and be heard from late. In an ironic twist, Game Winner will now break from Post 15, which is where 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah broke from after scratches in the Derby.

17. Roadster (6-1)

I'm sure Bob Baffert had a bit of a bad flashback when Roadster drew PP 17, as in 2001, Point Given had a brutal trip and was a beaten favorite and in 2016 Mor Spirit finished 10th as the fifth choice from PP 17. But the defection of Omaha Beach means he will slide over and break from PP 16, so if PP 17 was the reason you didn't like Roadster, you might want to reassess. He certainly figures here, but is he set to regress slightly off that career top in the Santa Anita Derby? And Game Winner did beat him on the square at Del Mar last year. Plus, Mike Smith hopped off to ride the now-scratched Omaha Beach. Roadster can win, and I will be using, but I think he is the most vulnerable of the Baffert runners.

18. Long Range Toddy (30-1)

Ran a career top in the Rebel and just got by Improbable in the final bob at odds of better than 8-1. Then he predictably regressed from the far outside post in the Arkansas Derby when Omaha Beach and Country House joined the field. He'll be closing, but is he good enough to pass all of the big names? I don't think so. Hopefully one day Steve Asmussen will find the Derby winner's circle. He has the most Derby starters in history (19) without winning the race. I just don't think it will come this year. And now he has the albatross of PP 17 being 0-for-40 as well.

19. Spinoff (30-1)

It looked like he might be home in the Louisiana Derby, but By My Standards caught him late to pull the upset. He's got no choice but to send, or else he will be hung out in the parking lot around the first turn. He's the one from the outside who could make life a little more difficult on Maximum Security, especially now that he's likely the one who will be pressing speed from the outside. In that sense, he's a factor in the race. But I don't expect him to be around when the real running takes place.

20. Country House (30-1)

He shouldn't be too affected by the outside post, as he's going to drop back and make one run late. And he's got just the jockey to do it in Flavien Prat, who has outrun his odds with both of his previous Derby mounts. I don't think he can win, but he's certainly worth using for third and fourth, as he should be flying down the middle of the track late. If there's a Tacitus vs. Country House head-to-head, Country House might be worth a shot at what will likely be nice plus money.

21. Bodexpress (30-1)

I used the maiden in the Florida Derby at a huge price, and he didn't disappoint, finishing second. This race shapes up as a whole lot tougher. Could he round out the super? I guess, but I'm inclined to leave him off.

Fallica's suggested plays

Here are some suggested plays. I will use a $1 base on exotics for easy math. Adjust to your handicapping and bankroll as desired. Good luck!

More handicapping tidbits

  • The third choice in Derby wagering hasn't won the race since Strike the Gold in 1991. Last year Mendelssohn finished last as the third choice, but in 2017 and 2016, both Classic Empire (fourth) and Gun Runner (third) ran well.

  • Think it's as easy as the favorite over the second choice to run first and second? Only twice in the past 40 years has the Derby produced a result where the favorite won and the second choice ran second, in 2016 when favorite Nyquist won and second choice Exaggerator was second, and in 2004 when favored Smarty Jones won and second choice Lion Heart was second.

  • Even during this run of six straight winning favorites, the mutual payouts have been quite nice, as long shots have filled in the place and show spots in half those instances, and the $1 trifecta has topped $1,700 in three of those years.

  • Last year, Justify made it six years in a row where the favorite won the Derby, extending the longest stretch of winning favorites in Derby history. Ten of the past 19 (and eight of the past 11) Derby winners were the post-time favorite. From 1980 to 1999, favorites were 0-for-20.

  • Each of the past six Derby favorites won, and each of the past seven finished first or second (favorite Bodemeister finished second in 2012). The last favorite to finish out of the money (worse than third) was Dialed In in 2011.

  • Game Winner (4-1 on ML) could be one of the longest-priced favorites in Derby history. Only 11 runnings of the Derby have seen the favorite sent off 4-to-1 or longer. Four of the 11 won, with the last being Always Dreaming in 2017. Five of the seven times the favorite didn't win, the winner was at least 13-1.

  • Last year Justify became the seventh straight horse to win the Kentucky Derby with a perfect record as a 3-year-old. This year Tacitus (2-for-2), Roadster (2-for-2) and Maximum Security (3-for-3) are the only Derby contenders who are undefeated as 3-year-olds.

  • Maximum Security will be the 30th undefeated horse to run in the Derby. Nine undefeated horses have won the Derby. Maximum Security will likely not be favored Saturday. The only undefeated Derby winner not sent off as the favorite was Barbaro in 2006.

  • Bob Baffert will attempt to win consecutive Derbies for the second time and has multiple chances to do so, as he saddles Game Winner, Improbable and Roadster.

Are we headed for another shocking result? Flash back to 2009, when favorite I Want Revenge had to scratch leading up to the race. What happened that year? Likely the biggest fluke in Derby history when Mine That Bird, off a win at Sunland, came flying home up the rail on a sloppy track at huge odds with Churchill staple jockey Calvin Borel up. How does that translate to this year? With favorite Omaha Beach out and an off track likely in the works, could seemingly hopeless long shot Cutting Humor, off a win at Sunland with Churchill staple jockey Corey Lanerie up, repeat history?

Lane Gold's value picks

For a number of years, the Kentucky Derby favorite seemed almost a sure thing to lose, but the betting choice has now won the race a record six consecutive years. Since only 30 percent of favorites win races, this year seems to be screaming upset.

Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Trainer Bob Baffert, who has pulled off the improbable feat of winning a Triple Crown twice in four years, is back in the Derby with three chances to win for a record-tying sixth time. With Omaha Beach scratched on Wednesday night, Baffert may well be back in the driver's seat.

The late defection of Omaha Beach has made what normally is a wide-open race even more unpredictable. The morning favorite has now shifted to 2-year-old champion Game Winner, one of the three Baffert entrants. Here are some potential value horses to wager on Saturday afternoon:

Roadster (Post Position 16, 9-2 Morning Line)

2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Justify through his Triple Crown triumph, elected not to continue with 'Team Baffert' in the Derby and chose Omaha Beach, but that move backfired and Florent Geroux is the beneficiary.

Geroux has been one of the young, rising stars in racing and gets on a hot horse. Roadster has won three of four races, including the Santa Anita Derby, which produced American Pharoah and Justify, and his running style is perfectly suited for the Kentucky Derby. He should be positioned just a few lengths behind the front-runners and should have clear running to make his charge for the front.

The scratch of Omaha Beach actually could help him, as he will slide out of the dreaded 17-hole, which is winless in Derby history. He may be the highest-priced Baffert horse in the race.

Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Maximum Security (PP 7, 6-1 ML)

Trainer John Servis is trying to duplicate the Smarty Jones magic of 2004, as he brings another undefeated horse into the 'Run for the Roses,' but he is not getting nearly the same attention.

Kentucky Derby Betting Strategy

He is 4-for-4, and his competition has not been close. The tightest finish he had was a 3½-length victory in the Florida Derby on March 30. His best path to winning the Derby will be going straight to the lead and slowing down the early pace. The race does not seem to have any true front-runners, so he should be able to reach the lead easily.

Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

If the track comes up wet, as predicted, it won't affect his chances, as he has a win on a sloppy track earlier this year.

Kentucky Derby Betting Superfecta

Tacitus (PP 8, 8-1 ML)

The Derby is one of the few races that has eluded Hall of Famer Bill Mott, but this colt gives him his best shot. He has won three in a row, including the Wood Memorial in his last start.

Like Roadster, he will be sitting off the lead but not too far back. Jockey Jose Ortiz, one of the best riders in the country, has been aboard in all four of his starts

Haikal (PP 11, 30-1 ML)

There has been a recent trend of a long shot coming from far behind to finish in the top three, and this colt might be the right one to do it.

He emerged as a top Derby contender after winning the Gotham in early March but then finished a fast-closing third in the Wood Memorial behind Tacitus. That effort dropped him way down the contender list, but his talent has always been there. He will need a clear trip so he can close, but the price will be right.

Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide

Value play: Bet Maximum Security and Roadster to win, and for those betting exactas and trifectas, use those two horses over Tacitus, Haikal, Game Winner and Win Win Win.

Gold's Kentucky Oaks value

The female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby will see a strong favorite Friday in Bellafina, who has won six of eight lifetime races and is riding a three-race winning streak. But one of her two losses occurred at Churchill Downs last fall.

Here are a couple of horses that will be good value and could knock off the Oaks chalk:

Champagne Anyone (PP 10, 6-1 ML)

There appears to be a lot of early speed in the Oaks, and the closers will likely be the big beneficiaries. Champagne Anyone will likely be midpack early on and save her best run for the far turn and down the stretch.

Another huge plus for her is that she is based at Churchill Downs.

Serengeti Empress (PP 13, 8-1 ML)

This horse has been all or nothing. She either wins easily or is nowhere to be found. What works in her favor is that she had a 19½-length victory at Churchill Downs last year and has top rider Jose Ortiz aboard for the first time.

If she is able to avoid an early speed duel with Bellafina, she might show up with her A-game.

Value play: Champagne Anyone and Serengeti Empress to win, and for those betting exactas and trifectas, use those two horses over Bellafina and Lady Apple.