Money Line In Nfl Betting

A moneyline wager is a straight bet on the winner of a game. There are no point spreads attached or any other factors to consider. The sole concern is which side will win the contest. After taking a look at the moneyline odds for a game you’re interested in betting on, you’ll know which side is expected to win. Moneyline betting is also called straight-up betting. This is the most basic way to bet because you are simply picking a team to win. When you visit your sportsbook of choice, you’ll see NFL moneyline betting odds that look something like this: Falcons -150. What Are NFL Moneyline Odds? Moneyline betting simply require the team you’re betting on to win outright. The odds attached to each team denote an underdog and a favorite, which determine how much you win if your bet pans out. If you’re used to betting on NFL spreads, you’ll already be familiar with the concept of moneyline odds. The lines that are attached to spreads are expressed using the moneyline. The Chiefs are listed at 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600), while the defending champion Buccaneers are the third-betting choice at 10/1. In between Kansas City and Tampa Bay are the Green Bay Packers, who are currently at 9/1 odds. Here is a quick reference on Super Bowl odds for.

NFL money lines are have become commonplace over the years, after originally appearing in Las Vegas sportsbooks after Nevada legalized sports betting and as legal bookmaking came to prominence in the 1970s.

Today, NFL money lines are some of the most wagered markets in the world and are available at every pretty much every sportsbook in existence. Like every other type of NFL wager, such as Props, Totals, Parlays, Teasers there are ins and outs that bettors need to know before betting money lines.

The easiest way to understand moneyline wagers is by using a $100 bet. Using the above example, the moneyline on the underdog Buccaneers was +136. At +136 odds, a $100 wager would pay $136 in profit if the Buccaneers won the game (for a total payout of $236). Bettors often like picking underdogs because they are usually “plus” money.

What Exactly is a Money Line?

Money lines are odds given by the sportsbook with no attached pointAmerican Odds spread. If bettors wager on their team to win via the money line – they simply must win the game outright, regardless of the score line.

Money line odds can be called US odds or American Odds, depending on the bettor’s point of reference. Money line odds are the standard means of wagering for baseball and hockey bettors as traditional point spreads are not practical for these types of games.

Of course, there is a relationship between point spread and money lines as the money line odds will correlate to the point spread offered on the game. Meaning if a team is an +3 underdog it will normally have money line odds of around +160, but if the team is a +7 underdog their plus odds will then increase to somewhere around +280.

Examples of Money Lines

Understanding money line odds are simple because they use the same wagering format we are used to betting when odds are attached to a point spread and are based on the amount you can win on a $100 wager. Here’s an example of an underdog money line that a bettor would make a typical Sunday:

Pittsburgh Steelers +175

Now, if I were to wager $100 on the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their game, I’d be looking at a possible profit of $175. Since the Steelers are the underdog in this matchup, I’ll be able to risk less to win more in this money line wager. Let’s take a look at a money line bet with a favorite:

Baltimore Ravens -200

The Ravens are the favorite in this game. I’ll have to wager $200 to win $100 on the Ravens in this game. As you can see I’m paying a much steeper price for betting on a money line favorite than I am an underdog. Without a point spread, money line odds “even up” the two teams and offer bettors varying prices based their expectation to win the game.

What is the Bookie’s Edge on Money Lines?

To understand a bookie’s edge on money lines, it is best to read three of our in-depth NFL betting articles; where lines come from, and both implied probability and theoretical hold to understand how sportsbooks make a profit when offering these types of bets.

All books will have a “service charge” built into their money line offers that charges bettors from both sides. To figure out the vig or edge that a book has each money line bet, we have to figure out the implied probability of a typical NFL money wager. Let’s look at our above example:

NFL Money line
Pittsburgh Steelers +175
Baltimore Ravens -200

In this example, if we wager $100 on the Steelers we’re risking $100 to win $275. If we wager $200 on the -200 Ravens, we’re risking $200 to win $300. Since we can’t push, (except in the rare case of an NFL tie – which would be graded as no action) there are two possible outcomes and we can easily figure out the bookmaker’s vig with simple math.

$100/$275 = 36.36
$200/$300 = 66.66
Total: 36.36+66.66 = 103.02

This is very simple to do and just involves taking the amount we risk by the total payout. This information tells us that the bookies have just over a 3 percent edge on this bet and that it is a negative proposition for us. Still, 3 percent quite low for a bookie’s advantage on a wager.

Also, if I feel one side of the wager is a bit off, I may want to make a play. Remember, the numbers of 36.36 and 66.66 percent are the implied probability of each bet or the win probability with zero vig on the line.

What Does It All Mean?

Essentially, those are the numbers we need to hit to break even on the individual bet, plus the house’s vig.

The Steelers at +175 have a breakeven percentage of 36.36 percent. So, we need to win our bet at least 36.36 percent of the time to breakeven on our wager. The Ravens at -200 have breakeven percentage 66.66 percent. Obviously, since the Ravens are the favorite they will win more often, but how much more often is the key component when deciding if a bet like this has any value.

If we feel the Ravens are going to win this game 80 percent of the time, then this bet is a bargain for us. We have a massive edge on the oddsmakers if we are right. Likewise, if we believe the Steelers can win the game 50 percent of the time, then again we will have quite a large edge on the bookies, even with their just over 3 percent vig.

Obviously, the key here is calculating the bookie’s edge in a particular money line bet and then figuring out if we feel that they have made a mistake on one of the sides. The sportsbook’s built in edge on each NFL money line bet is around 2-3 percent on average. It is crucial to figure out the implied probability of each side in a money line wager to be sure you are not paying too much in vig on a bet. Some sportsbooks have much better odds than others and will shade certain numbers, meaning they will make one side of the bet worse odds than the other because it’s heavily bet by the public. They also may just simply offer poor odds.

General NFL Money Line Betting Tips

Money line betting is a different animal than spread betting, and knowing when to use it appropriately in NFL games can payoff big. A spot I always look to bet the money line in a game is when the underdog is getting less than 3 points. Only 7 percent of NFL games are decided by 1 or 2 points, and bettors will normally save vig when using this option.

For instance, say the Carolina Panthers are facing the Tampa Buccaneers and the Bucs are +2.5 (-110) underdogs. Of course, we can go ahead of bet Tampa Bay at -110 and get our +2.5 points. Alternatively, we can wager on Tampa’s underdog money line, which in this situation will be within the +120 to +140 range.

This is a much better option than wagering on the point spread and paying vig. While we might get burned in a close game occasionally, in the long run, it is a profitable play provided we get solid odds.

Bettors may also want to lean towards underdogs when wagering on NFL money lines. One main reason is that most NFL bettors are squares or recreational bettors, and they lean towards betting favorites.

Another key reason is because the breakeven percentage is much higher for large favorites. Any favorite above -230 has a breakeven percentage above 70 percent. This means that bettors must win around two-thirds of the time or more just break even on high priced favorites. Obviously, the reverse is true for a +230 underdog, bettors will only have to win one-third of the time to break even.

While I would encourage bettors to bet more underdog money lines than favorites, especially large ones – this is not always the case. If your implied probability is 70 percent, but you think the favorite has an 80% chance of winning the game, you should consider betting. Also, it is worth noting that underdogs will offer more variance than favorites because they will lose far more often. Bettors should remember that underdog money line betting will offer more fluctuations in their bankroll than wagering on money line favorites or just by betting the point spread.

Another common tactic that I like to use is betting my normal amount on the point spread and then making a smaller wager, maybe a half unit on the money line. This way, I can still profit if the game is close and if I’m right with my upset pick I can cash in big, while reducing some of the risk.

Best US Sportsbooks for Money lines

There isn’t one book that is generally better than the others in regards to money lines, but it is always crucial to check the implied probability of a wager before betting to make sure the vig is not too high. As I mentioned above, some sportsbooks will just offer poor odds, and they should be avoided.

5Dimes Sportsbooks is usually the quickest to post money lines for the upcoming NFL week followed by Bet Online and Bovada. All are solid options.

Final World on NFL Money Lines

I personally am a massive fan of money line betting in the NFL. Sometimes bettors just “know” that an upset is brewing, and instead of simply taking the points and looking for a cover – they want more. This is not only gutsier (that counts for something, right?) but also more profitable in most cases. Money lines are simply another form of buying points, which can certainly be profitable in the right situations.

If you’re not making money line betting a part of your NFL betting strategies, you are not only selling yourself short as an NFL handicapper, but you’re missing out on some profits, as well.

In the world of sports betting, a money line bet is simply betting on which team you expect to win. It doesn’t have anything to do with a spread. You may also see a money line bet listed as “Money Line” or “ML” in different spaces.

Money lines are represented in negative and positive values.

Negative money line: -145, -220, or anything similar

When you see a minus (-) sign in front of a price, it shows you that team is the favorite to win the game.

That number also indicates how much money you need to bet/spend in order to win $100.

For example, a -220 money line means you need to bet $220 in order to win $100 provided the team you bet on actually does win.

Heavy favorites are known in sports betting as a “chalk” pick. A heavy favorite usually has a number pushing +300 or more. Here, you’re wagering a lot on the favorite to win a little. Don’t assume that a heavy favorite, or chalk pick, is a guaranteed winner…

Positive money line: +145, +220, or anything similar

When you see a plus (+) sign in front of a price, it shows you that team is the underdog. Higher numbers like +400, +500, +5000, etc. represent how much of an underdog the team is in the game. The higher the number the more likely the team is expected to lose in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

The number also indicates how much money would win in comparison to every $100 you wager.

For example, a +150 money line means you would win $150 for each $100 wager you place should that team win the game.

Money line examples:

Lets use an NFL example here:

New England Patriots -240

How Does Money Line Betting Work

Miami Dolphins +220

To bet the New England Patriots to win on the money line, you would need to spend $240 on the bet for a chance to win $100 if the Patriots beat the Dolphins. Your return would be $340 – the original $240 stake (bet) and the $100 bet profit.

Vegas Betting Lines Nfl Football

To bet the Miami Dolphins to win on the money line, you would spend $100 on the bet for a chance to win $220 if the Dolphins, as the underdog, beat the Patriots. Your return would be $320 – the original $100 stake (bet) and the $220 profit.

In both situations, it doesn’t matter if the team you bet on wins by one point or 100 points. You’re purely betting on the team you believe will win the game. As Al Davis said, “Just win, baby.” That’s exactly what you’d be looking for out of your selection. It doesn’t have to be pretty, it just has to happen or your original stake is lost.