Scratchers Strategy

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Sports & Recreations → Casino-Gaming

  • Author Ace Lee
  • Published September 13, 2010
  • Word count 486

What's the best strategy? Scratchers are printed and sold to retailers in packs of 20, 40, 100, or 200 tickets, depending on the ticket cost (see page 6 of the retailer manual). We assume that the prizes are distributed randomly throughout the packs, and that the frequency of each prize corresponds to the percentage remaining in circulation. Most followed Scratch users top list on ScratchStats.com, your source for Scratch community statistics. TESTING MY SCRATCHER WIN STRATEGY! High Card Poker $5 California Lottery ScratchersSend Fan Mail Here:)KennethPO Box 491584Los Angeles, CA 90049Do you like.

If you want to win scratchers, then read this article. It will show you tips on how to win scratch offs.

The easiest lottery game to win is the scratch off tickets. You see as a convenience store owner I see which game brings in more winners. There are more actual winners from the scratch off games than any other lottery game combined. Now a lot of people won't or don't want to play the scratch off games because they only win a small amount. What they don't realize is that over a period of time, all of the little amounts add up while they don't win anything on the other games.

Since you want to be a winner, let me give you a couple of other reasons why you want to play the scratch off game. If you want to make sure that you win the lottery, then you want to play the scratch off game, because it not only has the most actual winners, but it also has the best odds of winning. The odds are best for winning compared to all the lottery games available to you to play.

If you are using your hard earned money to play a lottery game, it just makes the best sense to play the game that is going to give you the best return on your money? You know which game has the best odds. Now determine which ticket in that game offers the best odds.

Not all scratch off tickets have the same odds of winning. Some scratch off tickets will have better odds than other scratch off tickets. There have been two-dollar games that had better odds of winning than more expensive games like the three dollar and five dollar games.

It is interesting to see why people pick a particular ticket. A lot of people don't pick the tickets with the best odds because they don't like the color of the game or it isn't as attractive as some new games. Some people pick a certain ticket because it has their favorite color but they find that they continue to lose their money over and over again.

Some games have attractive titles and pretty titles. So be sure that you don't purchase a ticket based on the color or the title, but be sure to focus on the odds of the ticket. Select the best ticket to play based on the best odds. You see you want to remember that you are playing so that you can win the lottery.

When you go to play your next lottery ticket, make sure you play the game with the best odds and the ticket in that game with the best odds. Don't buy the ticket based on the prettiest color, your favorite number or the hottest title. Play the game and buy the ticket with the best odds so that you can win the lottery.

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Article source: http://articlebiz.com
  • Glossary of Statistics Provided:

Isn't playing the lottery a fool's errand?

Yes, most of the ways that people play it. They play with no knowledge of the odds, the true number of winning tickets available, and no concept of the statistical likelihood of winning. They turn to myths, superstitions, false assumptions, and idealistic beliefs about the 'best' ways to play the games.

There are no 100% guarantees. However, armed with more accurate data and a list of games with the best statistical probabilities, you can improve your odds of winning.

Scratchers Strategy
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Where did the data come from?

The original data came from the Virginia Lottery website (http://www.valottery.com). The Virginia Lottery commission posts updated data daily. Each retailer scans the ticket barcode into a machine to determine if it is a winning ticket, so the Virginia Lottery's system tracks the scratcher tickets in real time and updates the website each day. We've taken that data and analyzed it to produce something you can use when trying to maximize your odds of winning . . . or at least not losing as much.

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How were the statistics calculated?

We started by calculating the total number of tickets in circulation using the initial odds of winning any prize given on the Virginia Lottery multiplied by the total number of initial prizes. For example, if the odds of winning a prize were 4.25 to 1, and the total number of prizes remaining were 1,125,000, then the total number of scratcher tickets is 4.25 x 1,125,000 = 4,781,250. Using the data on the website also allowed us to calculate other statistics, such as the average probability of winning, the standard deviation, the percent of prizes remaining, and the expected value of each scratcher ticket. (See the glossary below for a more detailed explanation of each of the statistics provided on this site.) We then used these statistics to rank them.

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How was this ranking was compiled?

We ranked the scratchers according to certain groups of statistics:

1) Rank by Best Probability of Winning Any Prize

2) Rank by Best Probability of Winning a Profit Prize

3) Rank by Least Expected Losses

4) Rank by Most Available Prizes

5) Rank by Best Change in Probabilities

These ranking groups are the average rankings by each statistic included in that group (see details below). We then ranked the scratchers by their average of these rankings. The home page ranks a scratcher first by its ranking in its cost group (e.g., among $1 scratchers), and then by its overall ranking among all scratchers.

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What's the best strategy?

Scratchers are printed and sold to retailers in packs of 20, 40, 100, or 200 tickets, depending on the ticket cost (see page 6 of the retailer manual). We assume that the prizes are distributed randomly throughout the packs, and that the frequency of each prize corresponds to the percentage remaining in circulation. Given the statistical laws of a normal distribution, purchasing a string of tickets from a single pack that is equal to the odds of winning plus three standard deviations is 99.7% likely to turn up at least one winning ticket.

For example, if the odds of winning are 4 to 1, and we add to that three standard deviations of 1.25, that means that buying 8 tickets is 99.7% likely to result in a prize. (See more details below.) All 8 could still be losers, but statistically the likelihood of losing on every single one is very slim. Buying a single ticket here and there is a poor strategy. Either the ticket before or after that purchase could be a winner, so buying several at once--and buying a number in accordance with the current odds--will maximize your chances of winning.

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So this strategy will help me win a lot of money, then?

This strategy is likely to help you lose less, but may not help you win money. It is more likely that you will purchase a winning ticket if you buy a number of tickets that accounts for three standard deviations from the mean; however, that does not mean that you will win enough to cover the total cost of buying all those tickets. Remember that scratchers are still a gamble, and gambling involves a risk of losing money. Please don't spend more money buying scratchers than you can afford to lose. And also remember that gambling can be addictive - as addictive as drugs, alcohol, or sex for some people - so if it becomes a compulsion then please seek help.
Ca scratchers strategy
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Strategy

Glossary of Statistics Provided:

Below is a glossary of explanations for the statistics on this site, listed under each ranking group:

Strategy

Rank by Best Probability of Winning Any Prize

  • Odds of Any Prize: The odds of winning any of the prizes for that scratcher game, using the latest data on the Virginia Lottery website of the total scratcher tickets remaining divided by the total prizes remaining.
  • Probability of Any Prize: The total prizes remaining divided by the total scratcher tickets remaining, providing a percentage for the odds of wining any prize.
  • Odds of Any Prize Plus Three Standard Deviations: Three standard deviations from the mean, added to the mean (i.e., the odds of winning any prize). Given a normal distribution, this number means that per the 65-95-99.7 rule there is a 99.7% likelihood that buy this number of tickets will include at least one prize-winning ticket. For example, if the odds are 4 to 1, and the standard deviation is 1.25, then 4 + 1.25 = 7.75, or rounded up to 8 to 1 odds (because you can't buy a partial ticket). In order words, buying 8 tickets means there is a 99.7% probability that one of those 8 is a winner (though probably only for a prize equal to the cost of the ticket.
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Rank by Best Probability of Winning a Profit Prize

  • Odds of a Profit Prize: This is the same as the odds of any prize, except divides all tickets by only the sum of prizes that exceed the cost of the ticket (i.e., winning means making a profit on the expense of the ticket). For example, if the odds of winning any prize on a $20 ticket is 4.25 to 1, then the odds of winning a prize worth $25 or more might be 5.75 to 1.
  • Probability of a Profit Prize: This is also the same as the probability of winning any prize, except divides only the sum of prizes great than the ticket cost by all tickets remaining. For example, if the probability of winning any prize with a $20 ticket is 25%, the odds of winning a prize worth $25 or more might be 15%.
  • Odds of Profit Prize Plus Three Standard Deviations: Three standard deviations for only profit prizes, added to the odds for a profit prize. In this case, buying a corresponding number of tickets means a 99.7% probability of winning a prize worth more than the cost of the ticket. However, this number may be substantially higher; for example, if the odds of any prize plus three standard deviations is 8, then this number may be as high as 12 or 15.
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Rank by Least Expected Losses

  • Expected Value of Any Prize: The 'expected value' (or EV) is often used to determine if Powerball is worth playing. The EV basically determines whether you would come out with any money after purchasing all the tickets to win every prize. We calculated the EV by using the formula '(Prize - Cost) x (Probability of Any Prize)' for each prize amount, and summed the result. If the sum is positive, the scratcher actually makes the most mathematical sense as a good bet. However, know this: the EV is usually negative. Still, purchasing every ticket is an unrealistic strategy - the real strategy is playing the probabilities. We converted the EV into percentages of the ticket cost (e.g. if the EV is $15 for a $20 ticket, we converted the EV to 75%), which allows for cross-scratcher comparisons. The higher the EV, the least likely the probability of losing money.
  • Expected Value of a Profit Prize: The same as above, except this EV includes only those prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket. Of course, the EV of profit prizes (like stated above, converted to a percentage of the ticket cost) is typically lower than the EV for any prize.
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Best Lottery Scratch Off Strategies

Rank by Most Available Prizes

  • Percent of Prizes Remaining: The average of the number of winning tickets in circulation for each prize.
  • Percent of Profit Prizes Remaining: The average of the number of winning tickets in circulation for those prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket.
  • Ratio of Decline in Prizes to Decline in Losing Tickets: Sometimes the prizes are claimed faster than the losing tickets, leaving an imbalance with a disproportionate number of losing tickets in circulation. Sometimes, it's the other way around: the losing tickets have been bought at a faster rate than the winning ones, leaving a disproportionate number of prizes in circulation. This imbalance, however, is only very slight. For example, the ratio could be 1.0000002, meaning for every ten million tickets there are two more winning tickets than losing ones.
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Rank by Best Change in Probabilities

Lottery Scratchers Strategy

  • Change in Odds of Any Prize: The percentage change from the initial odds when the scratcher game first started to the most recent odds (as calculated from the number of prizes remaining reported on the Virginia Lottery website). As tickets are purchased, maybe customers purchase a high number of prizes, decreasing the odds of winning. Or vice versa, and the odds improve as customers take losing tickets out of circulation. The amount of change in the odds is very slight. For example, the improvement could be 0.000038% or the decline could be -0.000501%.
  • Change in Odds of a Profit Prize: The same as above, except calculated using only prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket. Note that the two numbers still correspond exactly.
  • Change in Probability of Any Prize: The percent change in probability of winning any prize from the initial probability published on the Virginia Lottery website, based on the current number of prizes available.
  • Change in Probability of a Profit Prize: The percent change in probability of winning a prize worth more than the cost of the scratcher from the initial probability published on the Virginia Lottery website, based on the current number of prizes available.
  • Change in Expected Value of Any Prize: The change in the EV (as described above) from the initial EV of a scratcher containing any prize.
  • Change in Expected Value of a Profit Prize: The change in the EV (as described above) from the initial EV of a scratcher containing a prize worth more than the cost of the ticket.
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