What Bets Should I Place Today
NBA Best Bets - Who Should I Bet on Today? The ultimate resource to help you find the best bets each and every day in the NBA. This page is divided into 3 simple sections. Best Bets Today. Who should you bet on tonight? Check out all the best bets today from the team of experts at Doc's Sports. This page will be updated several times a day. Straight bets are in fact the most common and most simple type of sports bet ever used. You make a straight bet when you wish to place a wager on single side of a game and to win it, you must.
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Who to Bet on Tonight? Our Top Free Betting Picks Report for Today's Games
What Bets Should I Place Today Tomorrow
| Service | Sport | Pick | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jones | NCAA-B | Miami-FL +3 -106 | Show |
| Jimmy Boyd | NCAA-B | Notre Dame under 141½ -110 | Show |
| Jeff Alexander | NCAA-B | Boston College +13 -105 | Show |
| Dave Price | NCAA-B | CS-Northridge -2½ -108 | Show |
| Info Plays | Soccer | Harrogate Town -121 | Show |
| John Martin | NCAA-B | Oral Roberts +1 -103 | Show |
| Rocky Atkinson | NCAA-B | Manhattan -2 -108 | Show |
| Steve Janus | Soccer | Harrogate Town -121 | Show |
| Mike Lundin | NHL | Stars -126 | Show |
| Ben Burns | NHL | Bruins -111 | Show |
| R&R Totals | NHL | Hurricanes over 5½ -125 | Show |
| John Ryan | NCAA-B | Mt. St. Mary's +5½ +100 | Show |
| Joseph D'Amico | NCAA-B | Rice -4 -104 | Show |
| Calvin King | Tennis | F Lopez +105 | Show |
| Kenny Walker | MLB | Blue Jays -135 | Show |
| Cole Faxon | MLB | Royals -105 | Show |
| Dustin Hawkins | MLB | Rangers -109 | Show |
| Sal Michaels | MLB | Mets -155 | Show |
| Bobby Conn | NCAA-B | CS-Fullerton -5½ -110 | Show |
| Brandon Lee | NCAA-B | Miami-FL +3 -108 | Show |
| Totals Guru | NHL | Stars under 5½ -120 | Show |
| Sean Murphy | Soccer | Borussia Dortmund +122 | Show |
| Red Dog Sports | Soccer | Draw +210 | Show |
1. How Often Does a Horse Run a Place?
Win And Place Bet
Over the years, I’ve had a number of punters ask me about place betting strategies and whether they are likely to win. On the surface it seems like a good idea to find horses that you really like to win and then back them to place. You will enjoy more regular collects, turn what would have been some losing days into winning days and the profits will slowly accumulate, right?
Unfortunately, what is good in theory doesn’t often translate to practice and that’s certainly the case with place betting. The reality is that on average, the value in place betting markets is significantly less than win betting markets and is therefore much more difficult to profit from.
To properly analyse the merits of place betting you first need to understand how often a horse that has a certain chance of winning, will actually run a place.Consider an example where you like a horse in the market at $6.00 and believe it’s closer to a $4.80 or $5.00 chance. Do you know how often this horse can be expected to run a place?
In the example above, assuming your $4.80 to $5.00 assessed price is correct, you can expect the horse to run a place (1st to 3rd) 52% – 53% of the time.It’s easy to think that you like a horse so much and feel so confident about its chance of winning, that it’s almost certain to run a place, but the reality is far different.
The table below shows the historical place strike rate of horses based on their true win price / actual win percentage.
| True Win Price | Actual Win % | Actual Place % |
|---|---|---|
| $2.00 | 50.0% | 81.0% |
| $2.00 | 40.0% | 74.0% |
| $3.00 | 33.3% | 68.0% |
| $4.00 | 25.0% | 59.0% |
| $5.00 | 20.0% | 52.0% |
| $7.50 | 13.3% | 41.0% |
| $10.00 | 10.0% | 34.0% |
| $15.00 | 6.7% | 26.0% |
| $21.00 | 4.8% | 20.5% |
| $26.00 | 3.8% | 17.0% |
| $31.00 | 3.2% | 15.5% |
| $51.00 | 2.0% | 10.5% |
What Bets Should I Place Today Show
Note: This does not mean that a horse $5.00 in the market has a 52% place chance.
On average horses at $5.00 in the market only win approximately 18% of the time, not 20%. They’re true win price is closer to $5.50, which means they will run a place approximately 49.5% of the time.Once you have an understanding of the expected place strike rate for a horse’s true winning chance, you can work out the correct place price.
Two Place Prices
Good Bets To Place Today
| Actual Win % | True Win Price | Actual Place % | True Place Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | $2.00 | 81.0% | $1.23 |
| 40.0% | $2.50 | 74.0% | $1.35 |
| 33.3% | $3.00 | 68.0% | $1.47 |
| 25.0% | $4.00 | 59.0% | $1.69 |
| 20.0% | $5.00 | 52.0% | $1.92 |
| 13.3% | $7.50 | 41.0% | $2.44 |
| 10.0% | $10.00 | 34.0% | $2.94 |
| 6.7% | $15.00 | 26.0% | $3.85 |
| 4.8% | $21.00 | 20.5% | $4.88 |
| 3.8% | $26.00 | 17.0% | $5.88 |
| 3.2% | $31.00 | 15.5% | $6.45 |
| 2.0% | $51.00 | 10.5% | $9.52 |
Example: If you assess that a horse’s real chance of winning 20%, then it’s true win price should be $5.00 and its true place price should be $1.92